Tragedy PVC all year round

Tragedy PVC all year round If you're looking for the most heartbreaking chemical story of the year, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) definitely makes the list. Throughout 2023, the PVC industry has been plagued by weak demand and a deeply bearish outlook. Some market players have even decided not to touch PVC at all next year, signaling a major shift in sentiment. Data shows that domestic PVC prices have dropped significantly this year. For example, the price of PVC produced via the calcium carbide method was around 7,118 yuan per ton on January 1st, but by December 26th, it had fallen to about 6,489 yuan per ton—a drop of 8.83%. Despite a small rebound during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the overall trend for the year was clearly downward. This year also saw two major anti-dumping investigations targeting Chinese PVC exports. In May, India finalized its anti-dumping duties on Chinese PVC imports. Then, in December, Argentina launched an investigation into PVC products from China and Germany, particularly those used in window and door profiles. These investigations have led to export restrictions, increasing domestic supply and worsening the imbalance between supply and demand. As a result, PVC producers are struggling to raise prices. PVC is mainly used in construction materials like sheets, profiles, and pipes. Due to ongoing price adjustments, downstream companies are buying only what they need, keeping demand sluggish. Although there has been some improvement in commercial housing transactions recently, the government’s continued regulation of the real estate sector in 2023 has left many buyers hesitant. This has further weakened the demand side. According to data from 100ppi.com, the operating rate of major PVC manufacturers in the second half of the year remained between 50% and 60%. Analysts from the Business Club told the Securities Times that the PVC market has been bleak this year, with both producers, dealers, and traders expressing pessimism. Even the price of upstream raw materials like calcium carbide has returned to levels seen before the production cutback plan. Several traders who regularly deal with PVC have expressed little confidence in the product, saying they don’t want to be involved anymore. Looking ahead, analysts believe that government stimulus and the push for affordable housing could boost PVC demand in the long run. However, the current downturn is expected to last until March 2024.

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