Average annual price of non-ferrous metals next year may be better than this year

With the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the implementation of the 12th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan, as well as the rollout of the Energy Saving Products Huimin Project, demand for non-ferrous metals—particularly those used in intensive processing—will likely grow further. International non-ferrous metal prices are expected to remain volatile due to monetary easing policies across various countries. However, the average annual price is anticipated to improve compared to this year, which could ease business challenges. On November 28th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China released its 2012 report on industrial economic operations. The report highlighted that with increased infrastructure spending and the execution of key national development strategies, consumption of non-ferrous metals is set to rise. It also noted that the overall operating environment for the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to be better than in 2011, with production showing a steady growth trend. While efficiency has improved, recovery remains slow. According to the report, from January to November, the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 14% year-on-year, matching the same period last year. The output of ten major non-ferrous metals reached 33.84 million tons, up 8.4% from the previous year, though the growth rate was down 1.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Electrolytic copper and aluminum output rose by 7.9% and 12.3%, respectively. However, profitability declined sharply, with the aluminum smelting industry suffering a total loss. From January to October, the industry reported a profit of 147.5 billion yuan, a 16.2% drop from the previous year, with the profit margin falling to 2.78%, down 1.3% year-on-year. Alumina companies were among the hardest hit, reporting a net loss of 1.35 billion yuan, while loss-making enterprises saw their losses increase by 1.5 times. The primary cause of the profit decline is the drop in domestic and international non-ferrous metal prices, coupled with rising costs such as electricity, energy, and interest expenses. Underlying issues include overcapacity in certain products, limited access to self-sourced raw materials, a low proportion of internal energy supply, and a lack of high-value-added products with competitive advantages. Despite these challenges, investment in the sector has improved. From January to November, fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry grew by 17.7% year-on-year, although this represents a decrease of 14.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. Smelting projects saw a slight decline of 0.5%, while investments in mining and rolling processing industries rose by 17.9% and 41.7%, respectively. Looking ahead, the operating environment for the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to improve next year. However, challenges such as the rural appliance promotion program, overcapacity in low-end products, pressure to phase out outdated production capacity, and instability in the global financial market may still hinder progress. Overall, the industry is expected to maintain stability, with a stronger focus on structural adjustments in the coming year.

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