Top Ten Solar Market Forecasts in 2013

In the context of a global economic slowdown, overcapacity, falling prices, and trade tensions, the solar PV market in 2012 faced significant challenges, with gloom becoming the dominant theme. However, despite these difficulties, there were still signs of hope. According to Ash Sharma, director of solar energy research at IHS Corp., the industry was going through a tough phase, with government subsidies decreasing and product prices declining globally. Trade disputes among major players also created instability. Yet, he pointed out that some bright spots were emerging. IHS recently released its top ten solar market forecasts for 2013, highlighting key trends and expectations: 1. Global solar PV installations are expected to grow by double digits in 2013, but industry revenue will continue to decline, dropping from $77 billion in 2012 to $75 billion. This is due to lower installation volumes and falling system prices. 2. The industry restructuring trend will continue, with fewer companies surviving in the upstream segment. By 2012, only around 150 companies remained, down from 750 in 2010. Many smaller firms will be forced out of the market. 3. PV module prices are expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2013, ending the oversupply situation. Prices have been declining since 2011, but a balance between supply and demand is expected to emerge. 4. Solar trade wars will persist in 2013, with several complaints involving China, Europe, the U.S., and India. These disputes, however, won’t resolve the issue of overcapacity. 5. South Africa and Romania are set to become emerging markets in 2013. While their current installations are low, both countries plan to add hundreds of megawatts next year. South Africa’s growth is driven by 2012 tenders, while Romania relies on a green certificate program. 6. The European market may still see double-digit returns in 2013, thanks to existing subsidy programs. Even without incentives, the region’s mature market is working toward grid parity. 7. In 2013, the U.S. will install more solar power than wind power. This milestone reflects the growing competitiveness of solar as a renewable energy source, especially amid uncertainty over wind power tax credits. 8. China is expected to become the world's largest solar market, surpassing Germany with an installed capacity exceeding 6 GW in 2013. 9. Energy storage is set to transform the solar industry. As battery usage increases, it will allow for better utilization of solar energy, such as storing daytime electricity for use during peak hours. 10. New technologies will benefit equipment suppliers by reducing costs and increasing efficiency, helping them stand out in a competitive market. Forbes also highlighted predictions from experts, noting that hardware costs will drop significantly, but software-related expenses like installation access will remain a challenge. Industry consolidation and increased subsidies in certain countries are expected to drive large-scale growth. Meanwhile, Rafael Kevin of the U.S. Cleantech Group emphasized the need for continued industry consolidation and a more rational return on investment in the solar sector.

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