Tragedy PVC all year round

If you're looking for the most heartbreaking chemical story of the year, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) definitely makes the list. Throughout 2023, the PVC industry has been under a heavy bearish sentiment, driven by weak demand and market uncertainty. Some traders are even considering completely stepping away from this product next year. Data shows that domestic PVC prices have dropped significantly this year. For example, the average price of PVC produced via the calcium carbide method was around 7,118 yuan per ton on January 1st, but by December 26th, it had fallen to approximately 6,489 yuan per ton—a drop of 8.83%. The only minor recovery came during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, but overall, the trend remained downward throughout the year. This year also saw two major anti-dumping investigations targeting Chinese PVC exports. In May, India finalized its investigation and imposed an anti-dumping duty on Chinese PVC imports. Then, in December, Argentina launched a similar investigation against PVC products from China and Germany. These measures have restricted exports, leading to an oversupply in the domestic market and worsening the supply-demand imbalance. As a result, PVC producers find it increasingly difficult to raise prices. PVC is mainly used in construction materials like panels, profiles, and pipes. Due to ongoing price adjustments, downstream companies have been buying only what they need, causing prolonged sluggish demand. Although there has been some improvement in commercial housing transactions recently, the government’s continued regulation of the real estate sector suggests that demand won’t pick up quickly. This has left many market players worried. According to business statistics from 100ppi.com, the operating rate of major PVC manufacturers in the second half of the year was generally between 50% and 60%. A PVC industry analyst from the Business Club told the Securities Times that the market outlook remains bleak. Producers, dealers, and market participants are all pessimistic. Even the upstream raw material—calcium carbide—has returned to pre-production phase-out levels. Several traders who deal with each other expressed little confidence in PVC, saying they don’t want to touch the product anymore. Despite long-term expectations that government stimulus and affordable housing projects will boost demand next year, the short-term outlook remains negative, with the downturn expected to last until March.

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