China's copper demand is still optimistic about future consumption

China, once the major driver of global copper demand, has seen a slowdown in its copper consumption growth this year due to weak exports and declining domestic demand. This has raised questions about whether China will continue to be a key source of global copper demand. However, recent discussions at the "Asian Copper Conference" have shown a more positive outlook for the future of China’s copper market. Jiao Jian, General Manager of Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., expressed confidence that China’s copper consumption—both domestic and imported—will grow again, though not as rapidly as before. He highlighted the ongoing progress in China’s industrialization, urbanization, marketization, and internationalization. Specifically, with an expected urbanization rate of over 65% by 2030, more than 200 million people are expected to move into cities, which will keep copper demand strong in the coming years. Wu Yueneng, Deputy General Manager of Jiangxi Copper Industry, also emphasized the potential for continued growth in China’s copper demand. He pointed out that while per capita copper consumption in developed countries exceeds 10 kilograms, China currently stands at just 5.7 kilograms. With a population of 1.3 billion, this gap represents a massive potential demand of 13 million tons. Wu expects refined copper consumption to reach 7.68 million tons by the end of this year, up 4.8% from 7.33 million tons in 2011, although this is lower than earlier forecasts. On the supply side, Wu predicted production capacity could reach 5.6 million tons this year, but he warned that expansion faces challenges such as environmental regulations and high dependency on foreign copper resources. Additionally, current smelting shortages may limit production utilization even if new capacity is built. Foreign industry leaders share this optimism. Stefan Bole from Germany’s Aurubis AG noted that while China’s copper consumption has slowed compared to previous years, it still maintains a relatively high growth rate. Liu Boya, Head of China’s bulk commodities research department at Macquarie Group, believes next year’s copper demand will outperform this year. She forecasts a 6–7% increase in copper consumption, driven by continued infrastructure investment. China’s copper demand is expected to reach 8.3 million tons this year, with next year’s growth potentially exceeding this year’s 3%. Liu also pointed out that historical data shows a trend of increased fixed asset investment during the third year of a five-year plan. As the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” enters its third year, investment is likely to rise. The recovery of the construction sector and the end of inventory destocking by copper consumers are expected to further boost demand. Looking ahead, Liu predicts that global monetary easing will prevent a sharp decline in copper prices next year, though volatility is expected to increase. Overall, despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for China’s copper demand remains positive.

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