Where is the domestic polysilicon in 2014?

The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping investigation into imported solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea has significantly influenced domestic polysilicon price trends. Recently, the final decision was officially released, raising questions about whether the ongoing price rise will continue and how the domestic photovoltaic material market structure will evolve. A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce announced the final determination of the anti-dumping investigation. The ruling confirmed that the dumped imports caused substantial harm to China’s polysilicon industry, with the U.S. facing a 53.3% to 57% anti-dumping duty, while South Korean companies saw their rates increase slightly from 2.3% to 48.7%. The measures are valid for five years, starting January 20, 2014. Despite these efforts, some overseas companies are still finding ways to bypass the tariffs. Processing trade, which allows imports without tariffs, has become a common method to avoid punitive duties. According to Zhang Wei, an investment director at Junsheng Investment Management, many foreign firms are using this loophole to continue exporting polysilicon to China. For example, Korea’s OCI, which accounts for 30% of polysilicon imports, is only taxed at 2.4%, and European companies have also managed to escape the anti-dumping list through negotiations with Chinese authorities. This limited enforcement, according to Zhang, does little to curb the dominance of foreign producers in the domestic market. Moreover, some overseas companies are re-exporting polysilicon through Taiwan to evade the anti-dumping measures. In November 2013, China imported 792 tons of polysilicon from Taiwan—up 27.1% from the previous month, representing 10% of total imports. Experts warn that if not addressed, similar tactics could worsen the problem in the future. Processing trade now accounts for a large portion of polysilicon imports. For instance, 71% of South Korean polysilicon came through processing trade in November 2013, while nearly all U.S. imports followed the same path. Lu Wei of the Polysilicon Industry Technology Innovation Alliance suggests that the Ministry of Commerce should consider banning polysilicon from processing trade to strengthen its trade protection efforts. Despite the rising prices, the market structure remains stable. Domestic polysilicon prices have surged, reaching 147,000 yuan per ton, up 8.64% from the start of the year and 20% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that if the government restricts processing trade, the price may continue to climb. Zhang Wei notes that demand is also driving the price increase, as downstream companies are stockpiling to avoid future hikes. Some industry insiders predict that prices could reach $25/kg, earlier than expected. Meanwhile, manufacturers of monocrystalline silicon and thin-film PV are adapting by launching new standards and forming alliances. However, the current price surge isn’t affecting the competitive balance between different technologies. Monocrystalline silicon and thin-film PV still face challenges, such as high production costs and lower efficiency compared to polysilicon. As the industry evolves, larger players with advanced technology are gaining more market share due to economies of scale. Companies like Jiangsu Zhongneng, part of Poly GCL, have maintained strong performance despite import dumping, supplying over 12 GW of raw materials annually. While rising polysilicon prices may seem beneficial in the short term, industry leaders stress that long-term sustainability requires cost reductions and technological advancements. With innovations like silane fluidized bed technology and self-supplied power plants, Chinese polysilicon producers aim to provide affordable, high-quality materials to the global market.

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