The first-line PV manufacturers' operating rate has steadily increased

The photovoltaic industry has gone through a tough period over the past two years, but signs of recovery are becoming more evident. Shu Hua noted that by September, the supply and demand for mainstream products among leading domestic companies were tight, with utilization rates exceeding 80% and even reaching full capacity in some cases. This marks a significant turning point in the industry's development. Industry reports show that the entire photovoltaic value chain is becoming increasingly concentrated. Silicon materials and wafers, in particular, are dominated by a few major players—four companies control about 80% of the global silicon material market, while the top five wafer producers hold 65% of the market. Although the concentration in solar cells and modules is slightly lower, with the top five companies holding 25% and 40% respectively, the trend toward consolidation is accelerating. As a result, first-tier manufacturers have solidified their market positions and gained more influence. In the domestic market, the top 13 component manufacturers have shipped over 70% of their products domestically, while exports have surpassed 65%. Their total shipments reached 11GW in the year-on-year comparison, showing a 36% increase. This growth is driven by cost advantages, which have become more pronounced as competition intensifies. Meanwhile, the geographic distribution of these top manufacturers has become more balanced, enhancing their market presence. In contrast, second- and third-tier manufacturers are struggling to keep up, losing competitiveness in the process. Shu Hua also pointed out that most companies are expected to turn a profit in the fourth quarter. However, cash flow remains a concern for many, and their ability to generate internal funds has not yet fully recovered. Although product prices rebounded slightly in 2013, they still dropped nearly 60% compared to the same period last year. Despite ongoing cost reductions, the pace of decline has slowed, and overall profitability across the industry continues to fall. According to insiders, from January to August, China’s PV product exports fell by approximately 27%, but emerging markets now account for over 50% of the total. Japan has become China’s second-largest export market after the U.S., representing 21% of total exports. At the same time, the domestic market is growing rapidly, helping to balance the overall market structure. Japan’s photovoltaic market has seen rapid growth this year. The country plans to install 28GW of solar systems by 2020, and in 2013, it is expected to exceed 7GW in installed capacity. Meanwhile, the U.S. market is projected to reach 4.5–5GW in 2013, with an annual growth rate of around 1GW in the coming years. New large-scale markets are also emerging globally. For instance, India’s Nehru National Solar Mission aims to achieve 20GW of grid-connected solar power, while Thailand is promoting village-level solar projects. Globally, the photovoltaic industry is no longer confined to traditional European markets, but is expanding worldwide.

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