Solar power generation "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" installed capacity
2019-02-11 23:12:36
Event: The National Energy Administration released the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development†on September 12. The specific development indicators are: by the end of 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 21 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation will reach 25 billion kilowatt hours. . Among them, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation is 10 million kilowatts, the total installed capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants is 10 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of solar thermal power generation is 1 million kilowatts. The total investment demand is about 250 billion yuan. Comments: 1. The domestic PV total installed capacity target has been raised three times, which is a significant slowdown in the growth rate of demand for foreign markets. The initial target of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†solar power generation installed capacity was 5GW, which is due to the fact that China is the largest production market for photovoltaics rather than the demand market, especially for photovoltaic power generation. However, with the rapid expansion of global PV product capacity and the leading market for photovoltaic demand in Germany, the subsidy has begun to cut subsidies (the Merkel government has announced that it is expected to maintain 2,500-3,000 megawatts of solar power per year within the 52 GW ceiling. The “growth†trend, the PV subsidy reduction plan has been determined), the decline in supply and demand of international demand growth and severe overcapacity has led to a sharp fall in PV product prices. In 2011, the PV installation target was raised twice. The first time was to raise the target to 10GW in the middle of the year. The second time, the target was upgraded to 15GW at the end of the year, and now it is further upgraded to 21GW, which is obviously to help digest domestic PV. The product has huge excess capacity and continues to support emerging strategic industries. It is estimated that the current production capacity of China's photovoltaic cells is about 40GW, far exceeding the total installed capacity in the world in 2011. In terms of installed capacity, China's PV installed capacity has reached 2.9GW in 2011. In 2012, it is conservatively estimated that there will be 5GW of new installed capacity. Therefore, in 2012, the cumulative installed capacity will exceed 8GW, and the remaining 13GW will have 4GW new in the next three years. From this point of view, the average growth rate of new installed capacity will decline on the contrary. And China's solar capacity in 2011 and 2012 has reached 35GW and 40GW, and overcapacity will continue. In terms of investment amount, with the current photovoltaic power station cost 10 yuan / watt and distributed photovoltaic system 15 yuan / watt, the total investment demand for the "12th Five-Year Plan" will reach 250 billion yuan, the annual solar energy investment quota is conservatively estimated at 40 billion yuan. -50 billion yuan. To a certain extent, this can hedge the risk of a sharp slowdown in demand growth in foreign markets. 2. Grid-connected photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic systems have become the focus of development. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, large-scale centralized photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic systems each account for 10GW, and the installed capacity of solar thermal power plants will reach 1GW.
Large-scale centralized photovoltaic power plants are mainly concentrated in areas with abundant solar energy resources such as Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Tibet with long solar illumination and high intensity. However, the centralized photovoltaic power plant is still relatively weak in cost compared with conventional thermal power and hydropower. At present, the cost of centralized photovoltaic power plants is 10-12 yuan/watt, and the cost of power generation is about 0.8 yuan/kWh, while the cost of conventional thermal power generation At around 3 yuan / kWh, the economic type of photovoltaic power generation is still poor. Distributed photovoltaic systems have been successfully applied in developed countries, and domestic distributed PV has great development prospects. The plan encourages the installation of photovoltaic power generation systems on the roofs of buildings in conditional urban public facilities, commercial buildings and industrial parks, and supports the access to photovoltaic power generation systems in the internal grids of large industrial enterprises. Because the domestic private residential area is small in size and cannot form a scale for installing PV systems in most households in Australia, such as Australia, it can only be installed in various local industrial parks, economic development zones and large public buildings, like ordinary residential buildings. It still takes time. In addition, the distributed PV system power access and grid-connected operation technology system and management system are still blank, and the power system and price mechanism have not yet been established. All still need follow-up policy support and attention to implementation. 3. The EU anti-dumping investigation filed into the sword of Damocles. After 2011, Germany and Italy cut subsidies to reduce their installed capacity. China and the United States rely on high growth rates to fill some of the deficits. Global demand has declined overall this year. In the context of shrinking market demand, coupled with fierce market competition, trade protection policies in the field of solar photovoltaics have risen. On March 21, 2012, the United States announced the results of countervailing investigations on solar photovoltaic products in China. It initially ruled that China's solar photovoltaic products have export subsidies, and will impose a countervailing duty of 2.9% to 4.73% on these products. The ruling will be promulgated in October this year. On May 17, 2012, the United States announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping duties of China's photovoltaic cells and components, determined that there were dumping practices in Chinese companies, and ruled on temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 31.14% to 249.96% for Chinese companies. Coincidentally, German photovoltaic company Solarworld, which filed a double-dial lawsuit in the United States, said it plans to launch anti-dumping lawsuits against Chinese solar manufacturers in Europe in the middle of this year. Since the US double-reverse in May, the price of photovoltaic products has not risen, but it is declining. This undoubtedly dispels the doubts that former US companies have opposed double-reverse and prevented the increase in installation costs. The US double-success "success" or giving European companies the confidence to provide anti-dumping against Chinese PV products. On September 6, 2012, the EU officially issued a notice to launch an anti-dumping investigation on photovoltaic solar products in China, covering crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, cell wafers and silicon wafers. This is by far the largest trade lawsuit against China, involving more than $20 billion. The European Commission will launch an investigation in the next 15 months. If obvious dumping behavior is found, a temporary countervailing duty may be imposed within the next 9 months. Photovoltaic products exported from China to the European market account for 60%-70% of the total. In the face of such a large-scale anti-dumping investigation in the EU, if the survey results are successful, it will cause a devastating blow to the entire Chinese PV industry. Therefore, the EU anti-dumping investigation has undoubtedly become the sword of Damocles hanging in China's photovoltaic industry. 4. Maintaining the “neutral†rating of PV industry The plunge in the price of PV products makes the survival of the PV industry chain and the mid-stream enterprises extremely difficult. At present, the price of PV products is still at the bottom, and there is still a small decline, which is from the downstream PV power plant construction enterprises. To significantly reduce the cost. At the same time, due to the low base of China's PV installations, the new demand generated by the “12th Five-Year†PV installation target can only make up for the decline of some international demand, which can solve the urgent needs of the domestic PV industry, but it is not enough to dock domestically. The huge production capacity of photovoltaic products and the recovery of the industry's prosperity depend on the specific measures followed by the government, as well as the EU and US trade policies on domestic PV products, especially the EU anti-dumping investigation. Therefore, the PV industry is currently maintaining a “Neutral†rating. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is beneficial to PV companies. Careful attention can be paid to stocks with relatively small risks: Sunshine Power (300274), photovoltaic inverters, both centralized and distributed PV systems, benefiting; Extension Japan Xinneng (002218), benefiting from the distributed photovoltaic system combined with the building, the performance is also supported; Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316), to enhance the competitiveness by continuously increasing the added value of the product such as single crystal furnace; super sun (002506 ), actively expand overseas power station business, orders continue, through the US ETL certification to effectively avoid the US double-reverse, performance improvement expectations are enhanced. 5. Risk warning: The domestic PV follow-up policy is not strong enough; the EU has decided to anti-dumping China's PV products.
Large-scale centralized photovoltaic power plants are mainly concentrated in areas with abundant solar energy resources such as Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Tibet with long solar illumination and high intensity. However, the centralized photovoltaic power plant is still relatively weak in cost compared with conventional thermal power and hydropower. At present, the cost of centralized photovoltaic power plants is 10-12 yuan/watt, and the cost of power generation is about 0.8 yuan/kWh, while the cost of conventional thermal power generation At around 3 yuan / kWh, the economic type of photovoltaic power generation is still poor. Distributed photovoltaic systems have been successfully applied in developed countries, and domestic distributed PV has great development prospects. The plan encourages the installation of photovoltaic power generation systems on the roofs of buildings in conditional urban public facilities, commercial buildings and industrial parks, and supports the access to photovoltaic power generation systems in the internal grids of large industrial enterprises. Because the domestic private residential area is small in size and cannot form a scale for installing PV systems in most households in Australia, such as Australia, it can only be installed in various local industrial parks, economic development zones and large public buildings, like ordinary residential buildings. It still takes time. In addition, the distributed PV system power access and grid-connected operation technology system and management system are still blank, and the power system and price mechanism have not yet been established. All still need follow-up policy support and attention to implementation. 3. The EU anti-dumping investigation filed into the sword of Damocles. After 2011, Germany and Italy cut subsidies to reduce their installed capacity. China and the United States rely on high growth rates to fill some of the deficits. Global demand has declined overall this year. In the context of shrinking market demand, coupled with fierce market competition, trade protection policies in the field of solar photovoltaics have risen. On March 21, 2012, the United States announced the results of countervailing investigations on solar photovoltaic products in China. It initially ruled that China's solar photovoltaic products have export subsidies, and will impose a countervailing duty of 2.9% to 4.73% on these products. The ruling will be promulgated in October this year. On May 17, 2012, the United States announced the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping duties of China's photovoltaic cells and components, determined that there were dumping practices in Chinese companies, and ruled on temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 31.14% to 249.96% for Chinese companies. Coincidentally, German photovoltaic company Solarworld, which filed a double-dial lawsuit in the United States, said it plans to launch anti-dumping lawsuits against Chinese solar manufacturers in Europe in the middle of this year. Since the US double-reverse in May, the price of photovoltaic products has not risen, but it is declining. This undoubtedly dispels the doubts that former US companies have opposed double-reverse and prevented the increase in installation costs. The US double-success "success" or giving European companies the confidence to provide anti-dumping against Chinese PV products. On September 6, 2012, the EU officially issued a notice to launch an anti-dumping investigation on photovoltaic solar products in China, covering crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, cell wafers and silicon wafers. This is by far the largest trade lawsuit against China, involving more than $20 billion. The European Commission will launch an investigation in the next 15 months. If obvious dumping behavior is found, a temporary countervailing duty may be imposed within the next 9 months. Photovoltaic products exported from China to the European market account for 60%-70% of the total. In the face of such a large-scale anti-dumping investigation in the EU, if the survey results are successful, it will cause a devastating blow to the entire Chinese PV industry. Therefore, the EU anti-dumping investigation has undoubtedly become the sword of Damocles hanging in China's photovoltaic industry. 4. Maintaining the “neutral†rating of PV industry The plunge in the price of PV products makes the survival of the PV industry chain and the mid-stream enterprises extremely difficult. At present, the price of PV products is still at the bottom, and there is still a small decline, which is from the downstream PV power plant construction enterprises. To significantly reduce the cost. At the same time, due to the low base of China's PV installations, the new demand generated by the “12th Five-Year†PV installation target can only make up for the decline of some international demand, which can solve the urgent needs of the domestic PV industry, but it is not enough to dock domestically. The huge production capacity of photovoltaic products and the recovery of the industry's prosperity depend on the specific measures followed by the government, as well as the EU and US trade policies on domestic PV products, especially the EU anti-dumping investigation. Therefore, the PV industry is currently maintaining a “Neutral†rating. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is beneficial to PV companies. Careful attention can be paid to stocks with relatively small risks: Sunshine Power (300274), photovoltaic inverters, both centralized and distributed PV systems, benefiting; Extension Japan Xinneng (002218), benefiting from the distributed photovoltaic system combined with the building, the performance is also supported; Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316), to enhance the competitiveness by continuously increasing the added value of the product such as single crystal furnace; super sun (002506 ), actively expand overseas power station business, orders continue, through the US ETL certification to effectively avoid the US double-reverse, performance improvement expectations are enhanced. 5. Risk warning: The domestic PV follow-up policy is not strong enough; the EU has decided to anti-dumping China's PV products.
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