**Abstract**
Industry insiders believe that if the Chinese government includes polysilicon in the "processing trade" ban list, it could further close the loopholes associated with double anti-dumping measures, leading to continued price increases. Since the start of this year, the domestic polysilicon market has experienced a sharp upward trend. As of yesterday, the average price of polysilicon reached 147,000 yuan per ton, marking an 8.64% increase from the 135,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. For instance, Rijing Technology’s price was reported at 145,000 yuan per ton, while major producers representing 70% of China’s polysilicon capacity have raised their prices to as high as 155,000 yuan per ton.
Looking at a one-year time frame, the growth in polysilicon prices is even more striking. The current price of 147,000 yuan per ton represents a 20% increase compared to the same period last year, and it is even 3.1 percentage points higher than the peak seen last year.
The impact of the double anti-dumping investigation on U.S. and South Korean polysilicon imports has been significant since the Ministry of Commerce announced the case in July 2012. This issue has heavily influenced domestic polysilicon pricing over the years.
Originally, the Ministry of Commerce planned to release the preliminary findings on the double anti-dumping measures against the U.S. and Europe in February 2023. Due to this announcement, polysilicon prices surged between February and March of that year, peaking at 142,000 yuan per ton—the highest level of 2023. However, due to delays, the preliminary ruling was postponed until July, causing prices to drop sharply after March. By June, the price had fallen to as low as 120,000 yuan per ton. Since the release of the preliminary results, the market has gradually rebounded.
The original deadline for the final ruling on the U.S. and South Korea's polysilicon anti-dumping measures was January 20, 2024. The price surge in January was largely driven by expectations of a more stringent final decision.
According to Bai Wenwen, a business analyst, downstream companies are concerned about the potential for further price hikes, which has led to increased stockpiling at the end of the year. She also noted that improving demand is another key factor behind the recent price rise.
Reports indicate that even after the final ruling was released, some U.S. and South Korean companies continue to use the "processing trade" channel to bypass China’s anti-dumping duties. In response, polysilicon companies have urged the Ministry of Commerce to include polysilicon in the processing trade ban list.
Lu Jinbiao, deputy general manager of Zhongneng Silicon Industry, believes that placing polysilicon under the processing trade prohibition would help eliminate loopholes used by foreign investors to avoid anti-dumping duties. He emphasized that returning polysilicon to general trade supervision would strengthen domestic market control.
Bai Wenwen added that the current import of polysilicon through processing trade still evades tariffs and continues to affect domestic producers. If polysilicon is included in the processing trade ban, she expects the price to remain strong and continue its upward trend.
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