**Abstract**
Industry insiders believe that if the country adds polysilicon to the "processing trade" ban list, it could further close the loopholes associated with the double anti-dumping measures, leading to continued price increases in the polysilicon market. Since the start of this year, domestic polysilicon prices have surged sharply. As of yesterday, the average price reached 147,000 yuan per ton, marking an 8.64% increase from the 135,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year. For instance, Rijing Technology's price was reported at 145,000 yuan per ton, while 70% of China’s polysilicon production capacity has seen prices rise as high as 155,000 yuan per ton.
Looking at a one-year timeframe, the growth in polysilicon prices is even more dramatic. The current price of 147,000 yuan per ton represents a 20% increase compared to the same period last year, and it is 3.1 percentage points higher than the peak price recorded in the previous year.
The impact of the double anti-dumping investigation on U.S. and South Korean polysilicon imports has been significant. In July 2012, the Ministry of Commerce filed a case against these countries, which had a major influence on domestic polysilicon pricing. Originally, the preliminary ruling on the U.S. and European polysilicon cases was expected to be released on February 20 last year. This led to a sharp rise in polysilicon prices between February and March, peaking at 142,000 yuan per ton—the highest level of the year. However, due to delays, the ruling was postponed until July, causing a drop in prices after March, with the lowest reaching 120,000 yuan per ton in June. Since the release of the preliminary results, prices have gradually recovered.
The original deadline for the final ruling on U.S. and South Korean polysilicon was January 20 this year. The price surge in January was largely driven by expectations of a more stringent final ruling.
According to Bai Wenwen, a business analyst, downstream companies are concerned about further price hikes, prompting them to stock up more aggressively at the end of the year. He also noted that improving demand is another key factor behind the recent price increase.
Despite the final ruling being published, some U.S. and Korean companies continue to exploit the "processing trade" channel to bypass China’s anti-dumping measures, according to media reports.
In response, polysilicon manufacturers have urged the Ministry of Commerce to include polysilicon in the processing trade ban list. Lu Jinbiao, vice president of Zhongneng Silicon Industry, believes that adding polysilicon to the list of prohibited processing trade items would restore general trade supervision, effectively closing the loopholes used by foreign investors to evade anti-dumping duties.
Bai Wenwen added that the current import of polysilicon through processing trade still allows companies to avoid tariffs, which continues to affect domestic producers. If polysilicon is placed under the processing trade ban, the market expects prices to remain strong and continue their upward trend.
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