Coal industry ushered in the elimination of the season

This year, the coal industry has entered what many are calling its "winter." While some economists view this as a balance between supply and demand—like a spear and a shield—the author argues that the relationship is more complex. It's often a cycle of conflict, where supply and demand constantly shift, leading to a kind of mutual conversion. In the middle of this dynamic lies a harsh reality: "the weak are eliminated at the end." When production is in control, weaker consumers are forced out; when demand takes the lead, less efficient producers face the same fate. This natural process, though tough, ultimately helps the market evolve and become stronger over time. This year, the so-called "golden era" for coal is fading fast. The market is shifting from a production-driven model to one led by demand. This change isn't just limited to China—it’s impacting global coal markets as well. International coal companies are scaling back on domestic storage, eager to export their excess. China is now part of this trend. However, exporting without considering actual market demand could trigger another round of price drops, leading to a brutal price war. The result? A painful bloodbath for many players in the industry. Despite this, many coal companies feel they have no choice but to keep fighting, as there's little alternative to clearing inventory. Meanwhile, the U.S. is making significant strides in shale gas extraction, and it's only a matter of time before large-scale exports begin. At the same time, new energy sources like natural gas and solar power are gaining momentum. These aren’t just incremental changes—they mark the beginning of a new energy era, possibly even the fourth industrial revolution. Coal, once the dominant force in energy, is now being pushed aside, struggling to maintain its relevance in a rapidly changing world.

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