Oversupply of bulk carriers has a net increase in capacity. According to data released by Clarkson, from January to July, the global delivery of bulk carriers was 67.8 million deadweight tons. From the point of view of handheld orders, there will be 68.3 million deadweight tons of bulk cargo from August to December. Ship delivery. In addition, from January to July, the global dismantling of bulk carriers was 18.3 million DWT, and the estimated annual dismantling volume was 28.9 million DWT. After deducting ships that cannot be delivered on schedule, the delivery volume of bulk carriers this year is expected to reach 110 million DWT. In terms of possession, the bulk carrier fleet capacity was 615.4 million DWT at the beginning of this year and reached 664.6 million DWT at the end of June. It is estimated that the total capacity will reach 697.5 million DWT by the end of the year, and the annual capacity increase will be 13.3%. Among them, the Capesize bulk carrier increased by 15.3%, the Panamax bulk carrier increased by 16.3%, the Handysize bulk carrier increased by 11.7%, and the Handysize bulk carrier increased by 4.8%. However, from the perspective of the development of the world economy and the demand for international trade, even in optimistic circumstances, the global seaborne traffic growth this year is only 4% to 5%, far lower than the 13.3% increase in capacity. Therefore, the oversupply situation of the bulk carrier market will further intensify in the coming period.
Shipowners book to win high return on investment The bulk cargo market is still relatively active this year due to severe imbalances in supply and demand. From the January-July new ship orders, the new ship orders for bulk carriers reached 10.65 million DWT, accounting for 43% of the total new ship orders, although the new ship orders were significantly reduced from the peak of the ship market. However, with the successive delivery of these ships, it is difficult to change the situation of excessive supply of bulk carriers in the short term. The capacity has been surplus, and the shipowners have to book the ship mainly because the shipowner clearly sees that the current order can be customized for high quality and low price, which will help improve the overall operational efficiency and efficiency of the company and win high investment in the future. response rate. The current ship price has bottomed out, and many new ship orders are at zero profit, even negative marginal profit status. However, the situation of such a ship price oversold will not last long, and the price of the ship will eventually return to normal. On the one hand, some shipyards can't accept new orders or lose money after taking orders, and eventually they will go bankrupt, which will reduce the overall shipbuilding capacity. On the other hand, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, shipping demand will gradually pick up, supply and demand gap. Gradually reduce, "the ends of the balance" will gradually find a balance. It is this trend that has been seen. Shipowners believe that the current order-to-ship booking is more cost-effective; moreover, some shipowners in the shipping industry are currently doing well and have the ability to seize current market opportunities. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that some new ship orders are placed under the mentality of “low-in and high-outâ€. Therefore, in the face of rare new ship orders, ship companies still have to conduct a rational analysis, especially to check the shipowner's reputation and qualifications to prevent operational risks.
Shipyard Opportunity Technology Leads Demand The market is worse and the market will have demand. In the case of a serious overcapacity, the only opportunity for shipyards to obtain new orders is to develop more excellent ship types through technological advancement and innovation to lead shipowners’ demand and to eliminate backward ships and make capacity adjustments. The fleet is updated. In this respect, Japanese shipbuilding companies have done a good job. In the first half of the year, the new concept of green energy-saving bulk carriers developed by them has been favored by shipowners, and the situation of receiving orders has gradually improved. The more the market is in a downturn, the more it can reflect the characteristics of technology leading demand. The shipbuilding company can develop a high-tech ship type in the ordinary ship type market and will undoubtedly become a winner. In the next decade or two, the pattern of bulk carriers as the main shipbuilding type in the new shipbuilding market will not change, and the potential is still very large. Therefore, China’s shipbuilding enterprises cannot abandon the bulk carrier market, but develop high-quality ship types and build high-quality ships. In order to seize market opportunities. At present, many new standards and new standards such as the Ship Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), the Shipboard Noise Level Rules Amendment, and the New Coating Standard (PSPC) are pushing the ship toward green and environmental protection. Shipbuilding companies cannot stop at Meeting the requirements of these standards, if you can develop a ship that is better than these standards, the possibility of seizing market opportunities is even greater.
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