Building materials industry needs to pay attention to real estate pulling

The post-holiday construction rate of the building materials industry rebounded from the previous month, which was basically flat or slightly better than the same period of last year. The inventory level of raw materials of the downstream enterprises was generally low. The majority of downstream enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are cautiously optimistic about the situation this year and are mainly optimistic about the pulling of real estate.

According to the macro data, copper production increased by 7% year-on-year in 2012, while aluminum production increased by 11% year-on-year. In contrast, the domestic copper and aluminum output remained stable in January-February 2013, and the combined copper output in the January-February period increased by 16% year-on-year, and the combined aluminum output increased by 14% year-on-year. The macro production data of copper and aluminum materials are consistent with the information feedback obtained from analysts' microscopic surveys.

At present, the level of industrial metal inventory of LME and copper and aluminum in the last period is still relatively high. Combining the data of premiums and discounts and the decline of copper imports in February, analysts believe that the current industrial metal plate in China is still in the stage of digesting inventory. At the same time, the bonded area stocks are also flowing out in the near future.

Analysts found that real estate sales are a better leading variable for sales of architectural aluminum profiles, leading around two quarters or so. Judging from the current situation, the resumption of new real estate and sales data in the second half of last year may be one of the important factors supporting the relatively stable operating rate of copper and aluminum materials. In the future, further attention needs to be paid to the pulling effect of the real estate industry on metal demand. .