2 Real estate regulation will affect the sales of steel industry

In February this year, the real estate sector showed signs of recovery, and China’s steel production hit another record high, seemingly undermining the government’s efforts to curb overcapacity in the steel industry, which has long been seen as a loss-making sector. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, crude steel output rose by 9.8% last month, reaching an average of 2.21 million tons per day. This broke the previous record of 2.05 million tons/day set in January, and surpassed the 1.86 million tons/day recorded in December last year. The steel-consuming industries, including real estate and automotive, are showing signs of recovery. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday revealed that fixed-asset investment grew by 21.2% year-on-year in January and February. Meanwhile, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported a 15% increase in new car sales during the Lunar New Year period. Henry Li, a commodity researcher at Future Asset Management, noted that after the Lunar New Year holiday, many regions have started new infrastructure projects. The anticipated demand for construction has also led to increased production of cement and copper. At the same time, as the world's largest steel producer and consumer, China’s steel exports have continued to grow. In February, steel product exports surged by 25% year-on-year to 4.24 million tons. Although this marked a slight decline compared to the previous month, it was the 12th consecutive month that exports exceeded 4 million tons. The record-breaking steel production in February is particularly notable due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which typically causes a slowdown. The rise in output suggests that steel mills are trying to take advantage of higher steel prices to boost sales, despite still being at low price levels. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, analysts said that although steel prices rose in February, many steel mills were still operating at a loss. Even though iron ore prices hit a 15-month high, some mills were selling steel at a loss of 300 yuan per ton. China’s steel production capacity exceeds demand by 35%. According to a recent report by the China Iron and Steel Institute, the country produced 970 million tons of steel last year, but only 717 million tons were actually consumed. The Chinese government has been pushing for capacity reduction and industry consolidation. Hebei Province, the country’s largest steel-producing region, accounts for more than 25% of national steel capacity and plans to cut 60 million tons of production this year. However, this remains a challenging task. Wang Yifang, the second-largest steel producer in Hebei, stated that his company has no plan to reduce output. “Cutting 60 million tons is just a government target,” he said. “We will continue producing based on market demand.”

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