World Economic and Trade Development and Policy Outlook and Forecast in 2010
A few days ago, the World Economic and Trade Development and Policy Outlook 2010 released by the China WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics showed that China’s economic growth will be above 9% in 2010, and trade growth will exceed 15%.
The report believes that China's economy has entered a new growth channel, and the annual GDP growth rate in 2009 is estimated to be 8.5%. From the perspective of economic growth, domestic demand growth is expected to reach 12.9% in 2009, with consumption growth reaching 8.7% and investment growth in the form of fixed assets at 17.6%. The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth was 11.9%. The economic recovery is mainly driven by investment demand. The contribution of consumption to the economy still needs to be improved, and the overall export situation is still not happy.
Affected by the slow recovery of the European and American economies, the prevalence of global trade protectionism, and the continued increase in trade frictions, the overall export situation is still not overly optimistic. It is estimated that China's export growth rate will be about 20% negative in 2009. In 2010, the economic growth rate was about 9.3%, and trade could maintain a growth rate of around 15%. It is optimistic that the import and export growth can reach more than 20%.
The imbalance of investment, exports and consumption to the economic drive is a major hidden danger that plagues China's economic recovery and threatens the long-term stable development of China's economy. The rebalancing of the economic drive is a strategic issue that China needs to solve. In particular, the wage income of residents has not been raised correspondingly, which has restrained the residents' spending power. At the same time, investment drivers will cause overcapacity, especially driven by sectoral interests and local government interests. Industrial projects are rushed into production, providing opportunities for overcapacity. Under the situation that domestic demand is insufficient and the external demand situation is unfavorable, the problem of overcapacity has become more prominent. Correspondingly, insufficient domestic consumer demand will inevitably lead to greater reliance on exports. Under the financial crisis, trade protection measures of various countries have been continuously introduced, which has made the external market environment facing China worse. All of these require the government to introduce positive structural adjustment policies and supporting economic and social policies.
The report believes that under this situation, in 2010, China's economic stimulus policy is expected to continue. The monetary policy tone is “relaxed and moderateâ€, and fiscal policy will remain moderately flexible, but the flow of funds will undergo structural adjustment and more flows. In areas related to consumption, investment in technology R&D innovation and social sectors will increase. The future monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy should guide the economic resources of the society to promote industrial technology innovation and improve social development. Foreign exchange rate policy will continue to increase, and the management of RMB appreciation expectations will be more difficult. In terms of trade policy, in order to cope with the escalation of trade protection measures against China and safeguard the world trade order, China should actively participate in and promote the conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations as soon as possible.
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