Unbalanced supply and demand, scrap copper still has room for growth

There is no sign of improvement in scrap copper imports

Since the beginning of the Spring Festival in China, the Customs “Hedgerow” operation has been carried out, and the import volume of scrap copper has remained low. From the recent data, there has been little improvement, and it is still decreasing compared with the same period last year. At present, from the customs statistics, the cumulative year-on-year has decreased by 9.6%, about 290,000 tons. According to the statistics of relevant associations, this year, the domestic new crude copper production capacity is 620,000 tons, while the new copper refining capacity is 1.1 million tons. By the end of this year, the total copper refining and refining capacity will reach 5.04 million tons and 9.06 million respectively. Ton. This means that the demand for scrap copper in copper smelters alone will reach an astonishing 4.02 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons from last year. If we ignore the change in domestic scrap copper recycling and demand for copper processing plants, it means that there is at least 870,000 tons of scrap copper.
The refined price difference remains low

Since entering September, the refined price gap has declined again, from a high of nearly 1,500 yuan in August to only 500 yuan at the end of the month. Generally speaking, due to the resilience of scrap copper, when the price of copper plummets, the price difference of the scrap is likely to narrow and even form an upside down. However, the overall spot price of spot copper in September was not too bad, and the overall situation showed a wide fluctuation, and the refined price difference was smaller than expected. The reason for the reasonable explanation is that downstream demand for scrap copper, including copper processing plants, is still strong. According to our research, many manufacturers said that the operating rate of “Golden Nine” has indeed improved, and the demand for scrap copper is still relatively urgent.

The serious imbalance between supply and demand is the main theme of scrap copper this year. At present, this state will continue in October; and the arrival of the peak season will continue to stimulate the copper price. We have reason to be optimistic about the scrap copper in October. According to the latest statistics of ICSG, the shortage of copper supply is 130,000 tons, and the probability of turning to excess in the short term is not high. Overall, the value of copper in October is expected, and the price of scrap copper can also rise. We believe that the bright line in October has the possibility of hitting the 50,000 mark.

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