Shanghai aluminum future will be based on gradual increase

Shanghai aluminum futures market will gradually increase in Shanghai aluminum futures prices will experience a rebound in early August, after the trend has gradually shaken off the pattern of weak markets in the past more than a month, the weak market has changed. Judging from the situation in the previous week, the pattern of going all the way along the 5-day moving average week before the change in price changed to reorganize around the 5th line. Due to the consideration of the current domestic overall inventory, there is no further upward movement of prices. It may be under pressure from spot sales. However, from another perspective, with the approaching peak season of domestic aluminum ingots and the growth momentum of aluminum ingot exports, the reduction in domestic inventories will be foreseeable. However, due to the fact that the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is in a rest period, the company may suspend production. Or the reduction of production is not rare, which will effectively reduce the follow-on supply of the market. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the Shanghai aluminum futures price will easily rise and fall, and "step-by-step price increases" will be the main tone of the market. Disc features: Affected by the sharp rise of London Metals last Friday, each of Alcoa’s contracts opened higher across the board on the 06th; after a few shots to gain support, the price remained basically unchanged on the consolidation platform last week. Depart from the signs of the 5-day moving averages; and the 10-day moving average continues to maintain a gradual upward trend after wearing the 20-day moving average, indicating that the short-term trend is still preferred; 30, 60-day moving average flat shows that the market's early downward trend is gradually diluted. MACD began in early August. DIF wears DEM and Hongzhu replaces Green Column, indicating that the market has initially shown signs of weakness. From the long-short indicators, the BBI (3) re-commend with the BBI (6) again, indicating that the market may be gradually converted from the previous short market to a multi-market, and the weak downward trend since the fall in April is expected to change. . Internationally, London stocks continued to fall after the inventory fell below 900,000 tons last month. The decline in London aluminum stocks continued to increase. On the 13th, stocks fell further by 6,600 tons, and fell below the 800,000 tons mark at 798,625 tons. This shows that the consumption of aluminum ingots in the world still maintains a strong momentum. The continuous decline in inventories constitutes a greater support for LME futures prices. As a result, London Aluminum’s recent price performance has remained relatively strong, which will, to a certain extent, lift domestic aluminum prices. . In summary, Shanghai Aluminum has gradually emerged from the weak downward pattern in the past few months; but due to the fact that the status of domestic high stocks has not yet been fundamentally improved, whether the prices in the later period can obviously rise, as long as the indicator viewed is the rate at which domestic stocks are digested. . Considering that the current price will rise further, it will be suppressed by the spot dealers. Therefore, we should calmly look at the trend of the technical rebound that has occurred recently. Speculative buying should not be blindly pursued. Since the more recent rebound is mainly driven by consumer buying, consumer buying is more sustainable and stable than general speculative buying. Therefore, we believe that the aluminum price in the future will be easy to rise and fall. The midline can be considered gradually built. Editing: Fields

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