Chuangyuan Futures: Aluminium impacts 1,900 dollars
- The start of the production cycle, the market station 1,900 US dollars
Market features:
The LME March Aluminum has been in a strong consolidation near 1850 dollars and has now broken through the consolidation range. The upside has been opened.
Aluminum consumption in the international market has begun to start, and supply problems continue
The aluminum market's premium structure in the international market has changed from premium to premium.
The hurricane triggered concerns about US inflation in the market, and post-disaster data also contributed to market concerns about U.S. economic slowdown.
The influence of the national policy hinders the export of aluminum
In September, the aluminum price in the international market has maintained a strong consolidation
From the chart below, we can clearly see that the aluminum price of the aluminum market in the middle of August in the battle for 1,900 US dollars due to excessive pressure on the market has been back in the adjustment process, but the market's bullish atmosphere has not changed . Especially in mid-September, even if the price of the period fell to nearly 1,800 U.S. dollars, the market was also buying on the lows of the low-end funds, so that the price quickly recovered to the previous range and the market was strong and the competition was very strong at 1,850 U.S. dollars. The current price has broken through 1850 US dollars and began to move towards 1900 US dollars. The bullish market atmosphere is very strong.
Aluminum supply in the international market has continued
The peak season for aluminum has already begun and consumption has begun to start, but the supply of the market has not improved as a result. The supply of the market has been greatly affected by the reduction of production in the West and the poor export of China. According to preliminary data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI), in August 2005, the daily average daily output of primary aluminum fell to 64,700 tons, compared with 64,800 tons in July and 6,1200 tons in August 2004. According to IAI, in August 2005 (31 days), the total output of primary aluminum was 2.005 million tons, which was 2.009 million tons in July (31 days) and 1.898 million tons in August 2004.
Consumption has begun to start, and the supply and demand of the market has also seen a certain degree of intensification. We can see from the aluminum stocks of LME that the current consumption and supply have already appeared contradictions, and the market price has followed up.
The aluminum market in the international market has undergone certain changes
We know that premiums and discounts have always been the main symbol of the spot market for metals. Since the beginning of the off-season, Lun Aluminum has changed its premium and discount structure from premium to premium, and the discounted price has remained at around US$18. This level runs through the entire off-season, but since late September, the market's premium has changed. Lon-Aluminium's spot premium has been reduced from US$17 to the current US$0.5, and the premium structure has begun to be consumed. The growth has turned into a structure of rising water.
The hurricane triggered concerns about US inflation in the market, and post-disaster data also contributed to market concerns about U.S. economic slowdown.
In September, due to the relatively severe hurricane attack in the United States, crude oil futures rose sharply. The market worried that inflation caused by the sharp rise in crude oil, so speculative funds in a large number of buying behavior in gold and commodity markets, also involves the basic metal market We can see that there has been a large increase in the base metals. Among them, Lun Copper has also reached a new high, and LME has also seen a pattern of stabilization and rebound.
The durable material orders announced in the previous week and the US purchasing managers' index are all post-disaster data. The substantial increase in these data has increased the market's demand for base metals.
At the same time, the US manufacturing index is a very important indicator for base metals. In August, the index experienced a sharp decline. However, we know that due to repeated hurricanes in the United States in September, the market is waiting for the hurricane to bring basic metals to the country. The impact was announced. In September, the U.S. manufacturing index was post-disaster data, which has greatly exceeded the market's expected value of 52. This made the market even more convinced that the impact of the hurricane on the U.S. economy may be short-lived, and the hurricane may instead pull the base metals. demand. Spot prices still persist, and premium rises sharply
Domestic aluminum prices have almost been close to the cost price. The big manufacturers' reluctant sellers have kept the market's spot prices basically at the previous stage and started to pick up. With the gradual consumption of aluminum, the premium in the spot market has also gradually turned into a premium. And as the spot gradually starts, the premium is still likely to maintain a sharp rebound. Although the current export of aluminum has been affected, but with the reconstruction of American cities and the start of the consumption of aluminum in the market, we believe that exports will remain inevitable.
The clearness of national policy has hindered the export of aluminum
Due to the clear state policy in August, the export of aluminum in the domestic market has been greatly affected. The General Administration of Customs recently announced that domestic net exports of aluminum in January-August increased by 17.2% from the same period of last year to 856,000 tons, but in August, the net export of aluminum was only 16,100 tons, which was a decrease of 70% compared with the same period of last year. Therefore, it is not difficult to explain that the supply in the international market tends to be tight, and the trend of Lon Aluminum is therefore significantly stronger than that of Shanghai Aluminum.
Although exports were constrained, domestic consumption of aluminum stocks began to decline sharply as a result of consumption. Since China is the world's major producer of primary aluminum, the current production cycle has started, and the market's output of aluminum has also begun to increase.
Market price trend forecast
At present, from a technical point of view, Lon-Aluminum has already broken through the pre-finishing platform, and the market has begun to hit around 1900 US dollars. The upward space in the market has already been opened. We said that if Aluminium can stand firm for 1900 US dollars, the next target will likely It is the impact of 1950 US dollars, the domestic Shanghai copper will also rise passively, more than a single continue to remain, dips can still buy.